Cancun Climate Talks Slow, but Steady
For the past week, I’ve been at the UN Climate Negotiations in Cancun, as part of the Sierra Club delegation. Today is the last official day of the conference, so I’m taking the time to reflect on my experiences and discuss how the negotiations were progressing.
For the past week, I’ve been at the UN Climate Negotiations in Cancun, as part of the Sierra Club delegation. Today is the last official day of the conference, so I’m taking the time to reflect on my experiences and discuss how the negotiations were progressing.
Before I left, I already understood a tragic irony of holding the 16th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change here in Cancun. A well-known impact of global climate change is sea level rise, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finding a rise in sea level of 1-2 feet within the next 100 years, and recent evidence finding an accelerating rate of glacier melt that could cause sea level rise of over 6 feet. As I looked out east into the Gulf of Mexico from my shuttle bus, I was surrounded by the beauty of the coast and the waves flowing into the sand on the beach, hoping that there would be a commitment among world countries to protect our climate.
Over 600 million people live in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea-level, and two thirds of the world’s cities with populations over five million are located in these at-risk areas. The EPA estimates 26,000 square kilometers of land lost if sea level rises by 2/3 of a meter, and 33% of coastal land and wetland habitats are likely to be under water.
Over 600 million people live in coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea-level, and two thirds of the world’s cities with populations over five million are located in these at-risk areas. The EPA estimates 26,000 square kilometers of land lost if sea level rises by 2/3 of a meter, and 33% of coastal land and wetland habitats are likely to be under water.
The Road from Copenhagen
The Copenhagen Accord, while not the binding global climate deal hoped for, achieved several political agreements. It:
* Set a long-term goal of limiting global temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees C
* Set forth a process for States to report their greenhouse gas reduction targets of both developed and developing countries
* Included financing plans including "fast start" money for 2010-2012 "approaching" 30 billion, and a goal of $100 billion per year by 2020.
* Provided for developed country monitoring, reporting, and verification, and developing countries to monitor emissions and report through national communications, with "international consultation and analysis."
However, the Copenhagen Accord didn't accomplish:
- A long term emissions reduction target. Early drafts included the 50 percent global reduction by 2050 (including 80 percent from developed countries) agreed to by the G-8.
- Pledges that add up to a path to the goal of limiting temperature rise to 2 degrees C. Rather, they may add up to a 3-4 degree rise in temperatures, requiring more ambitious pledges.
- Mitigation pledges that are legally binding, since the Copenhagen Accord is a political agreement, and the Conference of the Parties (COP) merely "took note of" it and did not "adopt" it as a decision.
State and Local Actions Critical
Coming from California, it is clear that our Global Warming Solutions Act, which requires a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, is a bright spot of climate action in the United States, and therefore a ray of hope in the world.
California voters strongly support climate protection, defeating Proposition 23 by 63% in the November 2010 election, and electing Governor-elect Jerry Brown, running on a clean energy jobs platform to get California working again.
Obama EPA Taking Action
The clean cars standards first adopted in California set an average emissions level of 250 grams of CO2 per mile in model year 2016, equivalent to 35.5 mpg, and reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 950 million tons. A second phase to be proposed in Fall 2011 is evaluating more than 30 technologies to further reduce emissions during 2017-2025 to the equivalent of 47-62 mpg. The renewable fuel standard sets a goal of increasing renewable, low-carbon fuel to 36 billion gallons by 2022, reducing 138 million tons of CO2, replacing about 7 percent of expected annual gasoline. Additionally, new or modified stationary sources and power plants will need to adopt the most efficient technologies available to minimize emissions. This can help reduce unhealthy emissions from coal-fired power plants throughout the United States, preventing tens of thousands of premature deaths.
The Obama Administration's EPA actions are promosing, but cannot be taken for granted. Sierra Club's Bruce Niles wrote earlier this year about the importance of stopping the Murkowski Amendment, which would have eliminated the EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gases, and rejected the science supporting the EPA's endangerment finding that greenhouse gases endanger our health. Defending the EPA must remain a priority in addition to pushing for stronger action at the state and federal levels.
National Security Risks of Climate Change
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| USMC Brigadeer General Ayaha |
The Department of Defense presented at the U.S. Center at the Conference on DOD's analysis of risks expeced due to Climate Change. R. Admiral David Titley noted that many coastal military installations will be vulnerable from sea level rise, melting ice in cold areas such as Alaska, and hotter weather in the southwest. Lt. Colonel Paul Schimpf and Marines Brigadeer General Juan Ayala also commented on the impacts of climate change and how destabilizing societies posing long-term security risks due to food and water shortages and mass migration.
